THE CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE CAUCASUS AS A RESULT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING
Abstract
We present a study of the potential impact of climate change on the temperature, precipitation and on some extreme weather events in the Caucasus region according to the 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. We apply a dynamic downscaling technique with a high-resolution regional model forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). In contrast to the driving MPI-ESM, there is a clear difference in the pattern of mean temperature and precipitation changes between the South and North Caucasus, with the former likely more affected by projected changes with a strong increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. It seems that it is the better resolved Great Caucasus mountain range that causes the difference. Projected changes in seasonal mean of heavy precipitation show a similar magnitude and spatial pattern in both scenarios, being the summer increase in the magnitude of the heavy precipitation events much stronger in RCP8.5. The strong increase in heavy rain is associated to a strong decrease in precipitation. Then, the future precipitation regime will be associated to less frequent and more intense precipitation episodes in most of the region, especially in the Southern Caucasus.
About the Authors
N. S. Limareva
North-Caucasus Federal University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
W. . Cabos
University of Alcala
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. . Izquierdo
University of Cadiz
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
D. V. Sein
Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Limareva N.S., Cabos W., Izquierdo A., Sein D.V. THE CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE CAUCASUS AS A RESULT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING. Modern Science and Innovations. 2017;(2):15-26. (In Russ.)
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